Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 3:16pm Tuesday 25 Feb 2020, Valid from Thursday 27 February 2020 to Sunday 1 March 2020

On Thursday, a front should move northeast over Fiordland and then onto southern Westland late Thursday where it may become slow moving through Friday. This front delivers a period of heavy rain to Fiordland and Westland, and strong north to northwesterly winds. Later on Friday, another front moves onto Fiordland from the west, then moves northeast on Saturday while weakening.

On Thursday and Friday, there is low confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria in Fiordland, while there is high confidence for southern Westland. Late Friday and early Saturday, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for northern Westland and Buller as depicted on the chart. In addition, there is low confidence of north to northwesterly winds reaching severe gale in exposed parts of Fiordland and Southland at times during Thursday and Friday.

Later Saturday and during Sunday, the fronts move over central New Zealand and weaken away while a ridge of high pressure builds over much of the country.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1:00pm Thursday 27 Feb 2020
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