Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:04pm Thursday 25 Apr 2019, Valid from Saturday 27 April 2019 to Tuesday 30 April 2019

Friday night, a front is expected to move onto the lower South Island from the west, bringing rain to western parts, and northwest gales to eastern areas. The front should move northwards onto the North Island on Saturday night, while a second front approaches the South Island from the Tasman Sea, moving up the country Sunday and Monday.

On Saturday, there is high confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria in Fiordland and Westland, lowering to moderate on Sunday. On Monday, there is moderate confidence in Buller and northwest Nelson.

In Fiordland and Southland, there is moderate confidence of northwest gales becoming severe on Saturday and Sunday, and low confidence of severe southwest gales late Sunday and Monday. In parts of Otago and Canterbury, there is high confidence of of severe northwest gales on Saturday, lowering to moderate on Sunday.

Farther north, there is low confidence of severe northwest gales in Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa both Saturday and Monday.

And finally, there is low confidence of significant heavy rain from southern Waikato to the Tararua Range Sunday and Monday.

Late on Monday and Tuesday, a ridge is forecast to spread onto the country from the west.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Saturday 27 Apr 2019
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