Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 10:50am Sat, 28 Jan, Valid from Monday 30 January 2023 to 11pm Thu, 2 Feb

Persistent rain for the Upper North Island

A slow moving low is expected to remain just west of the upper North Island until Tuesday when it moves eastward into the Tasman Sea. This low delivers a feed of rain and heavy showers through the upper North Island during Monday and Tuesday, which spreads slowly southward on Wednesday and Thursday.

There is high confidence that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria about Northland on Monday and Tuesday, with a moderate confidence for Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula.

In addition, there is low confidence of northeast winds reaching severe gale at times in Northland and Auckland on Monday and Tuesday.

During Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a moderate risk of rainfall reaching warning criteria about western parts of Bay of Plenty and the Tasman Region, which spreads over much of the central North Island on Wednesday with a low risk (Taranaki to Bay of Plenty including central plateau and Waikato).

During Wednesday and Thursday, rain is expected about western parts of the South Island is affected, with a moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for for central and southern Westland and northern Fiordland.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1pm Mon, 30 Jan
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