Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:39pm Wednesday 11 Dec 2019, Valid from Friday 13 December 2019 to Monday 16 December 2019

A front is forecast to move northeast over the South Island on Friday, then weaken over the North Island on Saturday, followed by a disturbed west to southwest flow. A trough should move onto the south of the South Island from the west late Sunday then move northeastwards across the South Island on Monday. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain in Fiordland and the ranges of southern Westland on Friday, then again on Sunday and early Monday. There is then low confidence of heavy rain warnings being issued for northern Westland, Buller, northwest Nelson and the Richmond Range later on Monday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1:00pm Friday 13 Dec 2019
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