Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:59pm Friday 4 Dec 2020, Valid from Sunday 6 December 2020 to Wednesday 9 December 2020

On Sunday, a narrow ridge moves away to the east allowing a strengthening and moist northwest flow to spread over the country.

A front should then move north over the South Island during Monday and become slow-moving over central New Zealand on Tuesday before moving slowly north across the North Island on Wednesday. Rain is forecast to affect western areas, and northwest winds could rise to gale in eastern parts.

On Monday and Tuesday, for the South Island west coast, there is generally low confidence of rainfall accumulations meeting warning criteria, but moderate confidence for Buller. There is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain for the Tararua Range on Monday and Tuesday, then low for Wednesday, while the confidence is low for Mt Taranaki from Monday to Wednesday. On Wednesday, there is low confidence of warnings amounts of rain for the mountain and hill country of Waitomo, Taumarunui, northeast Taranaki, the Whanganui headwaters and Tongariro National Park.

In addition, there is a low confidence of severe northwest gales about inland parts of Southland, Fiordland, Otago and Canterbury late Sunday to Tuesday, and also about Wellington and the Wairarapa from Sunday to Wednesday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1:00pm Sunday 6 Dec 2020
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