Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 1:59pm Wednesday 14 Nov 2018, Valid from Friday 16 November 2018 to Monday 19 November 2018

A front will move onto the lower South Island on Friday, preceded by a moist northwest flow, then move onto Westland on Saturday. There is low confidence of significant heavy rain for Fiordland on Friday and Saturday, and moderate confidence over Westland on Saturday.

As the front moves eastwards on Sunday, cool southerlies will bring rain to eastern areas of the South Island. There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria in parts of Southland and Otago on Sunday and Monday. Please note, that there is a risk that snow could fall as low as 700 or 800 metres, possibly affecting some higher roads.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1:00pm Friday 16 Nov 2018
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