Unsettled weather is forecast over Aotearoa/New Zealand during Sunday and Monday. A northwest flow strengthens on Sunday ahead of an active trough which should move quickly over the country from the southwest on Monday, followed by strong southwesterlies, then a ridge on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Sunday and Monday, there is moderate confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in Westland, especially about the ranges, and low confidence for central and northern Fiordland. There is also low confidence on heavy rain for Buller on Monday. There is also moderate confidence of severe northwest gales for Canterbury High Country on Sunday.

On Monday, there is high confidence of severe northwest gales for Hawke's Bay south of Hastings, the Tararua District, Wairarapa, Wellington, the Marlborough Sounds and also the Canterbury High Country. There is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales followed by severe southwest gales for southern Fiordland, Southland, Stewart Island and Clutha, and also for severe southwest gales for Dunedin, North Otago and about Banks Peninsula. There is low confidence of severe west to southwest gales for Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Taupo, eastern Taihape, Hawke's Bay about and north of Hastings, and also for southern Whanganui, Manawatu, Horowhenua, Kapiti Coast and northwest Tasman. Lastly, there is low confidence of severe northwest gales for Marlborough (excluding the Sounds), Canterbury Plains, Christchurch, Banks Peninsula and Otago excluding Clutha.

Settled weather is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.