Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 2:54pm Sunday 20 Oct 2019, Valid from Tuesday 22 October 2019 to Friday 25 October 2019

A series of fronts, preceded by strong westerlies and followed by cold strong southwesterlies, are forecast to move north across New Zealand through to Thursday. Late Friday, a narrow ridge is expected to move onto the country from the Tasman Sea.

There is Low Confidence that snow might at times approach warning criteria over the lower South Island above about 500 metres from Tuesday through to Thursday, and parts of Canterbury and Marlborough from Tuesday evening and on Wednesday, affecting some higher roads and passes.

There is also Moderate Confidence that westerly gales could become severe over Central Hawkes Bay and the Tararua District on Tuesday and again on Thursday. Also, on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is Low Confidence of severe southerly gales in exposed parts of Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds. On Wednesday there is Low Confidence of severe southwest gales in exposed coastal parts of Hawkes Bay north of Wairoa and also in coastal Gisborne. Finally, on Wednesday and Thursday there is Low Confidence of severe west to southwest gales from Northland to Taranaki and eastwards to East Cape.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1:00pm Tuesday 22 Oct 2019
Be Advised:
Before making decisions based on this data
please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data