Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 3:27pm Tue, 5 Jul, Valid from Thursday 7 July 2022 to 11pm Sun, 10 Jul

A deep low and associated fronts and troughs from the north Tasman Sea are expected to move onto New Zealand during Thursday and Friday, bringing strong winds and rain to much of the country. The low pressure system should then move northwards on Saturday, then weaken on Sunday while a ridge builds over the South Island. Cold air is forecast to spread across the South Island from Saturday to Sunday, bringing snow to parts of the Island on Saturday, especially higher roads and passes.

There is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Northland during Thursday and Friday, while the confidence is low for Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula during the same period. There is high confidence of warning amounts of rain about eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty and far north of Gisborne on Friday, but moderate confidence for the remainder of Bay of Plenty.

There is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for southern Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, western Taupo, the Tongariro National Park and north Taranaki on Friday.

There is high confidence of warning amounts of rain for northwest Tasman on Friday, but low confidence for the remainder of Tasman including Nelson, north-western Marlborough, and Wellington as indicated on the chart. There is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for Horowhenua Kapiti Coast and the Tararua Range, also Westland and Buller including the Southern Alps during Friday and Saturday.

In addition, there is low confidence of severe northwesterly gales about the exposed parts of the North Island from Taranaki, Taihape and Bay of Plenty northwards on Friday, but the confidence increases to moderate for Wellington, Horowhenua Kapiti Coast, Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay south of Hastings during Friday and Saturday.

Finally, there is low confidence of heavy snow about the Mackenzie Basin, the Queenstown Lakes and Central Otago early Friday and on Saturday, and for the remainder of Otago, Southland and southeastern Fiordland on Saturday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till noon Thu, 7 Jul
Be Advised:
Before making decisions based on this data
please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data