Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 2:34pm Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, Valid from Thursday 5 August 2021 to Sunday 8 August 2021

A front is forecast to move east across New Zealand on Thursday, bringing a burst of heavy rain to central and northern parts of the North Island. There is low confidence of rainfall reaching warning amounts in Nelson northwest of Motueka, from Taranaki across to Tongariro National Park, also the eastern Bay of Plenty ranges on Thursday. Additionally, there is low confidence of north to northeast gales becoming severe in exposed parts of Fiordland.

On Friday, a low moves eastward across the North Island bringing heavy showers. During Saturday and Sunday, an unsettled cold west to southwest flow spreads over the country. There is low confidence of westerly gales becoming severe over the Tararua District and Hawke's Bay south of Hastings on Saturday, while there is low confidence of southwest gales becoming severe in exposed places of coastal Buller, northwest Nelson, and also Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland and Northland as indicated on the chart.

Finally, cold southwesterlies are likely to bring snow to some higher roads and passes across the South Island on Sunday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Thursday 5 Aug 2021
Be Advised:
Before making decisions based on this data
please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data