Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 3:08pm Thursday 22 Aug 2019, Valid from Saturday 24 August 2019 to Tuesday 27 August 2019

Strong to gale west to southwest flow affects New Zealand. On Sunday, there is low confidence of west to southwest gales becoming severe in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Hawkes Bay north of Wairoa and coastal Gisborne.

A front is forecast to move north over the South Island on Sunday bringing a period of rain to the West Coast. There is moderate confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in Westland and Fiordland on Sunday, while the risk is low in Buller.

Winds tend northwesterly ahead of this front and strengthen as it moves north across the North Island on Monday. There is low confidence that west to northwest winds may strengthen to severe gale force in exposed parts of Hawkes Bay south of Hastings and Wairarapa north of Masterton during Monday.

A second front is forecast to move north across the South Island late Monday and the North Island on Tuesday bringing another period of rain, however, rainfall accumulations are not expected to reach warning criteria at this stage.

A ridge is expected to extend onto the South Island from the Tasman Sea late Tuesday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Saturday 24 Aug 2019
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