Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:03pm Thu, 21 Oct, Valid from Saturday 23 October 2021 to 11pm Tue, 26 Oct

A trough over the Tasman Sea directs northeasterlies over much of New Zealand on Saturday, before crossing the country on Sunday and moving away to the east on Monday. Another trough approaches the South Island from the west later on Monday, before crossing southern and central New Zealand on Tuesday.

There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain in the north and east of Northland during Saturday and Sunday, as well as low confidence of severe gale northeasterlies over Northland and Auckland, as indicated on the chart.

There is also low confidence that a heavy rain warning will be needed for Tasman west of Motueka and Westland south of Otira during Sunday.

No other severe weather expected during the remainder of the forecast period.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1pm Sat, 23 Oct
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