Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:14pm Fri, 30 Sep, Valid from Sunday 2 October 2022 to 11pm Wed, 5 Oct

A low pressure system and an associated front affects the North Island on Sunday, bringing rain or showers to most places. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure covers the South Island, bringing relatively settled weather there.

On Sunday, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, and low confidence of heavy rain for the remainder of Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa including the Tararua District.

On Monday and Tuesday, the low pressure system weakens and moves slowly away to the east of the North Island, with an unsettled southwest flow spreading over the country.

A front embedded in the southwest flow sweeps northwards over the country on Wednesday, with southwesterlies rising to gale in exposed places. Temperatures are expected to plummet following this front, and snow showers are likely to low-levels over southern and central New Zealand. Many roads could be affected by snow, especially in the south and east of the South Island, and places exposed to southwesterlies will likely experience significant wind chill.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till 1pm Sun, 2 Oct
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