Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 2:46pm Tuesday 27 Jun 2017, Valid from Thursday 29 June 2017 to Sunday 2 July 2017

A ridge of high pressure over the country is expected to move eastwards on Friday as a large low pressure system over the Tasman Sea approaches New Zealand. The low and its associated fronts should move slowly over the country on Saturday and Sunday, bringing rain to much of New Zealand.

There is low confidence that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria about Westland and Fiordland north of Milford Sound on Friday and Saturday. There is moderate confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria about Buller and Nelson on Saturday, and low confidence on Sunday.

There is low confidence rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria about Bay of Plenty on Saturday and Sunday, especially about the eastern ranges.

In addition, as the low moves across central New Zealand on Saturday, the wind flow over the south of the South Island should turn easterly. There is low confidence a heavy rain warning will be required for eastern parts of Otago during Saturday and Sunday, due to the lower warning criteria of 40mm rainfall accumulation in 12 hours there.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Thursday 29 Jun 2017
Be Advised:
Before making decisions based on this data
please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data