Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued : 2:40pm Friday 21 Sep 2018, Valid from Sunday 23 September 2018 to Wednesday 26 September 2018

A cold snap on its way next week

A ridge of high pressure should move away to the northeast on Sunday, allowing a cold front to sweep over the country from the southwest late Sunday and Monday. This front is forecast to deliver a cold and showery south to southwest flow across New Zealand, with snow lowering to 200 to 300 metres over the South Island, and possibly 500 to 600 metres across the lower North Island. Warning amounts of snow are not expected at this stage, but snow is likely to affect higher roads and farms in these areas.

Late Tuesday, another front is forecast to approach the far south of New Zealand, and the west to southwest flow ahead of this front should strengthen. There is low confidence of west to southwest gales becoming severe about the south coast of the South Island including Stewart Island, and also about northern Wairarapa including the Tararua District, and central Hawkes Bay from later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Sunday 23 Sep 2018
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