Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 1:46pm Thursday 6 May 2021, Valid from Saturday 8 May 2021 to Tuesday 11 May 2021

A large trough of low pressure is forecast to move east over New Zealand from Saturday through to Tuesday, bringing periods of heavy northerly rain to western parts of southern and central New Zealand. There is high confidence of rain reaching warning amounts over Fiordland and southern and central parts of Westland late Saturday and Sunday morning, and moderate confidence further north from northern Westland to western Nelson. There is low confidence of rainfall in the Tararua Range reaching warning amounts on Sunday. Northwest winds may reach gale in the exposed inland parts of the South Island, and lower North Island later Saturday and Sunday, with low confidence of severe gales as depicted on the chart.

A second period of heavy northerly rain is expected over Westland, Buller and western Nelson late Monday and Tuesday morning. There is low confidence of rainfall in these areas reaching warning amounts.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Saturday 8 May 2021
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Before making decisions based on this data
please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data