Severe Weather Outlook Get File

Severe Weather Outlook


Issued : 2:07pm Tuesday 17 Jul 2018, Valid from Thursday 19 July 2018 to Sunday 22 July 2018

A weakening trough should move eastwards across New Zealand on Thursday.

On Friday, a moist northerly flow is forecast to strengthening over the South Island ahead of a front. This front is expected to cross southern and central New Zealand on Saturday.

On Friday, there is moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria over Fiordland and southern Westland, rising to high on Saturday. Also on Friday and on Saturday, there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales over parts of Fiordland and Southland.

As the front moves northwards on sat, there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain from central Westland to northwest Nelson. There is also high confidence of severe northwest gales over the inland parts of Otago and Canterbury and the Southern Alps, moderate confidence over coastal Otago and Canterbury, and over Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa. There is low confidence across parts of the central North Island, as indicated on the chart.

On Sunday, the front should move northeastwards while weakening, and a ridge of high pressure spread onto the South Island.

Probability/Confidance Map

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Good confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Image Valid Till Noon Thursday 19 Jul 2018
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please see the information at metservice.com who are the providers of this data